The Best and the Worst: CV’s New Redistricting Maps
Statewide redistricting, announced in December, has drawn a new political landscape in the Central Valley’s congressional districts and state offices. Redistricting for local offices, though, has mostly kept the status quo.
“We have seen the absolute best, best, best, best, best that can possibly occur in the statewide redistricting process,” said Lori Pesante, director of civic engagement and government relations for the Dolores Huerta Foundation, one of the valley’s leaders in pushing for fair maps that represent the valley’s underserved communities.
However, for local districts, she said, “That was the absolute worst, worst, worst, worst, worst.”
Why was there such a sharp difference between results for Congress and state Senate and Assembly seats, compared to those for local elections like city, county and board of education seats?
The congressional and state voting district maps were redrawn in December by the California Citizens Redistricting Commission, a nonpartisan commission created by state law. The maps are based on population counts from the U.S. Census conducted every 10 years, this time for 2020. The commission also considers public input, including input from valley advocates who attended public hearings and prepared and submitted data-rich analyses of the valley’s demographics.
The new maps drawn by the statewide commission for congressional and state offices (state Senate and Assembly) reflect the Central Valley’s current demographic make-up as majority people of color. From 1990 to 2020, the valley’s population underwent dramatic change: it went from 30% people of color/70% white to 70% people of color/30% white, Pesante said.
In contrast, the maps for local offices are not drawn by the commission, but by locally elected leaders. “There was clear manipulation of the process by the elected leaders themselves,” Pesante said. “The districts they drew, we do not believe, will end up being effective in electing people of color.”
How has (former) CD 21 changed? It will be labeled CD 22 and no longer has Fresno County, Lemoore or North Hanford in Kings County. It includes more of Bakersfield and other parts of Kern, Kings and Tulare Counties. The CD 22 population is 59% Latino, 29% white, 6% Black and 4% Asian.
Of the valley’s four congressional districts, three now have a majority Latino population: the new 13th, 21st and 22nd districts. That’s a big change from the maps drawn after the 2010 census, which had only one majority Latino district.
Despite its Latino majority, CD 22 is the only one of the valley’s four congressional districts that could be a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter:
Two of the four new districts appear to lean Democrat (CD 13 and CD 21).
One district, held by Kevin McCarthy, will remain solidly Republican (CD 20).
CD 22, the district lost by Democrat T.J. Cox to Republican David Valadao in 2020, is a toss-up.
With districts redrawn, Josh Harder (Dem) will run in the new CD 9 (north of his old CD 10).
Cook Political Report Rating as of 2/7/22
CD 13- Open - Lean Dem
CD 20- Kevin McCarthy - Solid Rep
CD 21- Jim Costa - Solid Dem
CD 22- David Valadao (Rep) - Toss Up
Why is CD 22 rated a toss-up? What are the challenges?
According to Pesante, the new CD 22 has many rural farmworker immigrant communities that have been traditionally disenfranchised. “They need to learn how to vote by mail. And, when you knock on doors in the new CD 22, they will be excited to talk to you since no one has ever knocked on their door. They will listen if you talk to them,” she said.
“That means not only helping people to register to vote, but making sure they understand how to vote when the time comes.That includes finding their polling place, getting there, and having the confidence to persist if they are asked for ID or intimidated by other obstacles.”
It can be daunting for English-language learners to fill out a ballot, whether at the polls or voting by mail. “People are super-confused by those mail-in ballots,” Pesante said. “We have to teach them to have confidence in the new vote-by-mail ballot process.”
Outreach efforts present opportunities for grassroots groups to engage people who, until now, haven’t been active or consistent voters. “We have a real shot at this,” said Dillon Savory, president of Valley Forward.